Miami Luxury Real Estate Market Report: Q3 2026

I read the Miami numbers every month, and this quarter they tell a clearer story than usual. Luxury is moving. The condo market overall is slower and more negotiable. Both things are true at once, and the gap between them is where good buyers find opportunity.

A quick note on timing: the official September figures from MIAMI REALTORS are not out yet. This report uses the most recent published data (June, July, and the August update on $10M+ sales). I will update it when September lands.

The short version

• Sales of $1M and up in Miami-Dade are running well ahead of last year.
• The $10M+ segment is on pace for an all-time annual record.
• Condo prices are flat to slightly down, while condo inventory is shrinking and buyers have more time to decide.
• The biggest pre-construction story of the quarter is the Mandarin Oriental sell-through on Brickell Key.

Million-dollar sales are climbing

MIAMI REALTORS reported 483 sales of $1M and up in Miami-Dade in June 2026, up from 374 a year earlier. In July there were 394, up from 341. That is growth of about 29 percent in June and about 15.5 percent in July. The pace cooled from one month to the next, but both months finished clearly above last year.

Overall, total home sales rose year over year for the 11th month in a row in July, with 1,935 closed sales, up 8.6 percent. So the luxury tier is not an isolated story. Demand across the county is rebuilding, and the top end is leading.

The $10M+ market is heading for a record

Through August, MIAMI REALTORS counted 194 sales of $10M and above in Miami-Dade. That already beats the 170 recorded in all of 2025. Their projection puts the 2026 total near 291, which would pass the previous record of 230 set in 2021.

If you are shopping at this level, expect competition for the best waterfront and the best views. Quality is still scarce, even in a year with plenty of new supply.

Condos: flat prices, more room to negotiate

In July the median condo price in Miami-Dade was $400,000, down 1.48 percent from a year earlier. Condo sales were up 11.4 percent, to 1,026. Active condo inventory fell 11.79 percent to 11,324 listings. Single-family tells a different story: the median was $685,000, up 3.79 percent, with inventory down about 23 percent.

The number I watch most closely is time. The typical condo took 86 days to go under contract in July, up from 65 a year earlier. Cash buyers made up 47.5 percent of condo sales. Prices are steady, but sellers are no longer getting instant offers, and that gives a prepared buyer leverage on terms, not just on price.

These are countywide figures. A Brickell tower, a Coconut Grove boutique building, and a Kendall townhome behave very differently, so please do not read one median as a verdict on your target building. I can pull the specifics for the building you are considering.

Pre-construction: the Mandarin Oriental signal

The week of October 5, news broke that the Residences at Mandarin Oriental Miami on Brickell Key has sold about $1.7 billion of residences before construction. Reporting says the 66-story South Tower, with 228 residences, is about 80 percent sold, and that two penthouses each sold for roughly $50 million. Completion is targeted for 2030.

What I find most interesting is who is buying. The reporting says about 65 percent of buyers are domestic, mostly from California, New York, and Massachusetts, with many from finance and tech. That is a higher domestic share than people expect from Miami ultra-luxury. International buyers remain an important part of this market, but the relocation wave from other US cities is now a major force too.

I have a full page on the project: Mandarin Oriental Residences Miami. If you want to see how the other branded towers compare, start with my guides to Brickell and Downtown Miami, and my Downtown pre-construction page.

What this means for buyers

If you are buying in the $1M and up range, move when you find the right property. The best ones are still selling. If you are looking at resale condos, take advantage of the longer timelines: ask for time, ask for terms, and check the building’s finances and reserves carefully. If you are looking at pre-construction, read the contract and deposit schedule line by line, and compare developers as carefully as you compare units.

If you are buying from abroad, my guide How to Buy Real Estate in Miami as a Foreign National walks through the process step by step. I work in English, French, and Spanish, so you can ask your questions in the language you think in.

Sources

MIAMI REALTORS and RWorld monthly releases for June 2026 (July 17), July 2026 (August 17), and the $10M+ sales update (September 16, 2026); Bloomberg and Insurance Journal reporting on the Mandarin Oriental Miami sell-through (October 1 and October 5, 2026). Figures are Miami-Dade County, not specific to any one neighborhood or building.

Disclaimer: I am a licensed real estate agent, not a CPA, tax advisor, or attorney. This report is general market information, not tax, legal, or financial advice, and it creates no liability for me or Luxe Miami Realty. Market data changes and every situation differs, so please confirm financing, tax, and ownership questions with a qualified CPA and attorney before you act. I am happy to connect you with trusted professionals.

Want the numbers for a specific building or neighborhood? Call or WhatsApp me at (786) 238-0927, or email julien@luxemiamirealty.com.